Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=42.3%, X=25.6%, 2=32.1%
• Double chance priority: 12 74.4% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.22
• Cards: Over 1.5 cards expected 3.4
• Importance weight: 1.0
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "f8ff83fe-d8e9-5fa1-a362-1acb0fc5f64d", "title": "Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo", "home_team": "Defensor Sporting", "away_team": "Liverpool Montevideo", "competition": "Primera División - Apertura", "date": "2026-07-20", "time": "23:00", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "12", "pick_probability": 74.4, "double_chance": "12", "suggestions": ["12 74.4%", "12 74.4%", "Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "BTTS No 52.8%", "Over 6.5 corners 65.5%", "Over 1.5 cards 72.8%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.4, "confidence": 0.518}, "double_chance": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.4, "confidence": 0.52}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 57.5, "confidence": 0.431}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 84.2, "under": 15.8, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 84.2}, "1.5": {"over": 66.2, "under": 33.8, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 66.2}, "2.5": {"over": 42.5, "under": 57.5, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 57.5}, "3.5": {"over": 30.2, "under": 69.8, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 69.8}, "4.5": {"over": 12.2, "under": 87.8, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 87.8}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 52.8, "confidence": 0.396}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "probability": 65.5, "expected": 8.22, "line": 6.5, "confidence": 0.511, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 65.5, "edge_from_expected": 1.72}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 1.5 cards", "probability": 72.8, "expected": 3.4, "line": 1.5, "confidence": 0.584, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 1.5 cards", "line": 1.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 72.8, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 42.3, "draw": 25.6, "away": 32.1}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.4, "over_2_5": 42.5, "under_2_5": 57.5, "btts": 47.2, "no_btts": 52.8, "expected_corners": 8.22, "corners_line": 6.5, "corners_pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "corners_probability": 65.5, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 65.5, "edge_from_expected": 1.72}, "corners_over_8_5": 47.5, "expected_cards": 3.4, "cards_line": 1.5, "cards_pick": "Over 1.5 cards", "cards_probability": 72.8, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 1.5 cards", "line": 1.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 72.8, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "cards_over_3_5": 48.8, "data_depth": 6}, "confidence": 0.518, "reason_score": 52.56, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo", "1X2 probabilities: 1=42.3%, X=25.6%, 2=32.1%", "Double chance priority: 12 74.4% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.22", "Cards: Over 1.5 cards expected 3.4", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}