Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=41.6%, X=25.5%, 2=32.9%
• Double chance priority: 12 74.5% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.39
• Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.72
• Importance weight: 1.0
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "b8c46f6b-df70-510f-9ed2-2e0cb057dd0e", "title": "Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan", "home_team": "Estrella Del Sur", "away_team": "Lujan", "competition": "Primera C", "date": "2026-07-20", "time": "18:00", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "12", "pick_probability": 74.5, "double_chance": "12", "suggestions": ["12 74.5%", "12 74.5%", "Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "BTTS No 54.4%", "Over 6.5 corners 67.0%", "Over 2.5 cards 64.6%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.5, "confidence": 0.518}, "double_chance": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.5, "confidence": 0.521}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 54.5, "confidence": 0.401}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 84.2, "under": 15.8, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 84.2}, "1.5": {"over": 66.2, "under": 33.8, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 66.2}, "2.5": {"over": 45.5, "under": 54.5, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 54.5}, "3.5": {"over": 30.2, "under": 69.8, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 69.8}, "4.5": {"over": 12.2, "under": 87.8, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 87.8}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 54.4, "confidence": 0.4}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "probability": 67.0, "expected": 8.39, "line": 6.5, "confidence": 0.526, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 67.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.89}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "probability": 64.6, "expected": 3.72, "line": 2.5, "confidence": 0.502, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.6, "edge_from_expected": 1.22}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 41.6, "draw": 25.5, "away": 32.9}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.4, "over_2_5": 45.5, "under_2_5": 54.5, "btts": 45.6, "no_btts": 54.4, "expected_corners": 8.39, "corners_line": 6.5, "corners_pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "corners_probability": 67.0, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 67.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.89}, "corners_over_8_5": 49.0, "expected_cards": 3.72, "cards_line": 2.5, "cards_pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "cards_probability": 64.6, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.6, "edge_from_expected": 1.22}, "cards_over_3_5": 52.6, "data_depth": 9}, "confidence": 0.518, "reason_score": 52.62, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan", "1X2 probabilities: 1=41.6%, X=25.5%, 2=32.9%", "Double chance priority: 12 74.5% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.39", "Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.72", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}