Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=42.1%, X=25.6%, 2=32.2%
• Double chance priority: 12 74.30000000000001% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.61
• Cards: Over 1.5 cards expected 3.01
• Importance weight: 1.0
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "afbbea8a-c654-5bb1-b9f0-0d83b2a99fb5", "title": "Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin", "home_team": "Molinos El Pirata", "away_team": "U. San Martin", "competition": "Segunda División", "date": "2026-07-20", "time": "16:00", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "12", "pick_probability": 74.3, "double_chance": "12", "suggestions": ["12 74.3%", "12 74.30000000000001%", "Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "BTTS No 53.2%", "Over 6.5 corners 69.0%", "Over 1.5 cards 68.1%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.3, "confidence": 0.517}, "double_chance": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.30000000000001, "confidence": 0.519}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 56.0, "confidence": 0.416}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 84.2, "under": 15.8, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 84.2}, "1.5": {"over": 66.2, "under": 33.8, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 66.2}, "2.5": {"over": 44.0, "under": 56.0, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 56.0}, "3.5": {"over": 30.2, "under": 69.8, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 69.8}, "4.5": {"over": 12.2, "under": 87.8, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 87.8}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 53.2, "confidence": 0.396}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "probability": 69.0, "expected": 8.61, "line": 6.5, "confidence": 0.546, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 69.0, "edge_from_expected": 2.11}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 1.5 cards", "probability": 68.1, "expected": 3.01, "line": 1.5, "confidence": 0.537, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 1.5 cards", "line": 1.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 68.1, "edge_from_expected": 1.51}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 42.1, "draw": 25.6, "away": 32.2}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.4, "over_2_5": 44.0, "under_2_5": 56.0, "btts": 46.8, "no_btts": 53.2, "expected_corners": 8.61, "corners_line": 6.5, "corners_pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "corners_probability": 69.0, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 69.0, "edge_from_expected": 2.11}, "corners_over_8_5": 51.0, "expected_cards": 3.01, "cards_line": 1.5, "cards_pick": "Over 1.5 cards", "cards_probability": 68.1, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 1.5 cards", "line": 1.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 68.1, "edge_from_expected": 1.51}, "cards_over_3_5": 44.1, "data_depth": 6}, "confidence": 0.517, "reason_score": 52.42, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin", "1X2 probabilities: 1=42.1%, X=25.6%, 2=32.2%", "Double chance priority: 12 74.30000000000001% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.61", "Cards: Over 1.5 cards expected 3.01", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}