Tacuary vs Deportivo Capiata

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: Tacuary vs Deportivo Capiata
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=43.3%, X=25.4%, 2=31.3%
• Double chance priority: 1X 68.7% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.67
• Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.83
• Importance weight: 1.0
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "85d457e8-14b6-531d-adab-4d3fc30c6f28", "title": "Tacuary vs Deportivo Capiata", "home_team": "Tacuary", "away_team": "Deportivo Capiata", "competition": "Division Intermedia", "date": "2026-07-20", "time": "20:00", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "1X", "pick_probability": 68.7, "double_chance": "1X", "suggestions": ["1X 68.7%", "1X 68.7%", "Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "BTTS No 52.2%", "Over 6.5 corners 69.5%", "Over 2.5 cards 66.0%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "1X", "probability": 68.7, "confidence": 0.488}, "double_chance": {"pick": "1X", "probability": 68.7, "confidence": 0.463}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 57.0, "confidence": 0.426}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 84.2, "under": 15.8, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 84.2}, "1.5": {"over": 66.2, "under": 33.8, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 66.2}, "2.5": {"over": 43.0, "under": 57.0, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 57.0}, "3.5": {"over": 30.2, "under": 69.8, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 69.8}, "4.5": {"over": 12.2, "under": 87.8, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 87.8}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 52.2, "confidence": 0.396}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "probability": 69.5, "expected": 8.67, "line": 6.5, "confidence": 0.551, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 69.5, "edge_from_expected": 2.17}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "probability": 66.0, "expected": 3.83, "line": 2.5, "confidence": 0.516, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 66.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.33}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 43.3, "draw": 25.4, "away": 31.3}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.4, "over_2_5": 43.0, "under_2_5": 57.0, "btts": 47.8, "no_btts": 52.2, "expected_corners": 8.67, "corners_line": 6.5, "corners_pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "corners_probability": 69.5, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 69.5, "edge_from_expected": 2.17}, "corners_over_8_5": 51.5, "expected_cards": 3.83, "cards_line": 2.5, "cards_pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "cards_probability": 66.0, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 66.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.33}, "cards_over_3_5": 54.0, "data_depth": 6}, "confidence": 0.488, "reason_score": 46.74, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Tacuary vs Deportivo Capiata", "1X2 probabilities: 1=43.3%, X=25.4%, 2=31.3%", "Double chance priority: 1X 68.7% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.67", "Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.83", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}