Eltersdorf vs Vilzing

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: Eltersdorf vs Vilzing
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=42.5%, X=25.6%, 2=31.9%
• Double chance priority: 12 74.4% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 7.5 corners expected 9.21
• Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.85
• Importance weight: 1.0
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "ca166b8d-3568-5371-9d94-3fd3f36a1be8", "title": "Eltersdorf vs Vilzing", "home_team": "Eltersdorf", "away_team": "Vilzing", "competition": "Regionalliga - Bayern", "date": "2026-07-31", "time": "17:00", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "12", "pick_probability": 74.4, "double_chance": "12", "suggestions": ["12 74.4%", "12 74.4%", "Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "BTTS No 54.9%", "Over 7.5 corners 65.4%", "Over 2.5 cards 66.2%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.4, "confidence": 0.518}, "double_chance": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.4, "confidence": 0.52}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 54.7, "confidence": 0.403}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 84.2, "under": 15.8, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 84.2}, "1.5": {"over": 66.2, "under": 33.8, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 66.2}, "2.5": {"over": 45.3, "under": 54.7, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 54.7}, "3.5": {"over": 30.2, "under": 69.8, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 69.8}, "4.5": {"over": 12.2, "under": 87.8, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 87.8}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 54.9, "confidence": 0.405}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 7.5 corners", "probability": 65.4, "expected": 9.21, "line": 7.5, "confidence": 0.51, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 7.5 corners", "line": 7.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 65.4, "edge_from_expected": 1.71}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "probability": 66.2, "expected": 3.85, "line": 2.5, "confidence": 0.518, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 66.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.35}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 42.5, "draw": 25.6, "away": 31.9}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.4, "over_2_5": 45.3, "under_2_5": 54.7, "btts": 45.1, "no_btts": 54.9, "expected_corners": 9.21, "corners_line": 7.5, "corners_pick": "Over 7.5 corners", "corners_probability": 65.4, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 7.5 corners", "line": 7.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 65.4, "edge_from_expected": 1.71}, "corners_over_8_5": 56.4, "expected_cards": 3.85, "cards_line": 2.5, "cards_pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "cards_probability": 66.2, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 66.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.35}, "cards_over_3_5": 54.2, "data_depth": 13}, "confidence": 0.518, "reason_score": 52.56, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Eltersdorf vs Vilzing", "1X2 probabilities: 1=42.5%, X=25.6%, 2=31.9%", "Double chance priority: 12 74.4% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 7.5 corners expected 9.21", "Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.85", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}