Match analysis

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Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II

Score 124.6Confidence 0.49Kind subet

Model notes

  • Team DNA comparison: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II
  • 1X2 probabilities: 1=43.1%, X=25.5%, 2=31.5%
  • Double chance priority: 1X 68.6% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
  • Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%
  • Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
  • Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 7.79
  • Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.73
  • Importance weight: 1.0
  • Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "2d10a208-dd39-5039-a6ae-8dac65664e41", "title": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II", "home_team": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki", "away_team": "Jagiellonia II", "competition": "III Liga - Group 1", "date": "2026-07-31", "time": "16:00", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "1X", "pick_probability": 68.6, "double_chance": "1X", "suggestions": ["1X 68.6%", "1X 68.6%", "Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "BTTS No 51.4%", "Over 6.5 corners 61.6%", "Over 2.5 cards 64.8%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "1X", "probability": 68.6, "confidence": 0.487}, "double_chance": {"pick": "1X", "probability": 68.6, "confidence": 0.462}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 56.7, "confidence": 0.423}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 84.2, "under": 15.8, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 84.2}, "1.5": {"over": 66.2, "under": 33.8, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 66.2}, "2.5": {"over": 43.3, "under": 56.7, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 56.7}, "3.5": {"over": 30.2, "under": 69.8, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 69.8}, "4.5": {"over": 12.2, "under": 87.8, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 87.8}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 51.4, "confidence": 0.396}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "probability": 61.6, "expected": 7.79, "line": 6.5, "confidence": 0.472, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 61.6, "edge_from_expected": 1.29}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "probability": 64.8, "expected": 3.73, "line": 2.5, "confidence": 0.504, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.8, "edge_from_expected": 1.23}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 43.1, "draw": 25.5, "away": 31.5}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.4, "over_2_5": 43.3, "under_2_5": 56.7, "btts": 48.6, "no_btts": 51.4, "expected_corners": 7.79, "corners_line": 6.5, "corners_pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "corners_probability": 61.6, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 61.6, "edge_from_expected": 1.29}, "corners_over_8_5": 43.6, "expected_cards": 3.73, "cards_line": 2.5, "cards_pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "cards_probability": 64.8, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.8, "edge_from_expected": 1.23}, "cards_over_3_5": 52.8, "data_depth": 4}, "confidence": 0.487, "reason_score": 46.61, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II", "1X2 probabilities: 1=43.1%, X=25.5%, 2=31.5%", "Double chance priority: 1X 68.6% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 7.79", "Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.73", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}