Municipal vs CS Cartagines

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: Municipal vs CS Cartagines
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=39.5%, X=32.7%, 2=27.8%
• Double chance priority: 1X 72.2% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 77.0%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.15
• Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.71
• Importance weight: 1.25
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "29c5ae03-dfbd-566c-8580-5f80dc4273e0", "title": "Municipal vs CS Cartagines", "home_team": "Municipal", "away_team": "CS Cartagines", "competition": "CONCACAF Central American Cup", "date": "2026-07-31", "time": "03:00", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "1X", "pick_probability": 72.2, "double_chance": "1X", "suggestions": ["1X 72.2%", "1X 72.2%", "Over 0.5 goals 77.0%", "BTTS No 57.5%", "Over 6.5 corners 64.9%", "Over 2.5 cards 64.5%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "1X", "probability": 72.2, "confidence": 0.506}, "double_chance": {"pick": "1X", "probability": 72.2, "confidence": 0.498}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 63.4, "confidence": 0.49}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 77.0, "under": 23.0, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 77.0}, "1.5": {"over": 59.0, "under": 41.0, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 59.0}, "2.5": {"over": 36.6, "under": 63.4, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 63.4}, "3.5": {"over": 23.0, "under": 77.0, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 77.0}, "4.5": {"over": 5.0, "under": 95.0, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 95.0}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 77.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.5}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 77.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.5}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 57.5, "confidence": 0.431}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "probability": 64.9, "expected": 8.15, "line": 6.5, "confidence": 0.505, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.9, "edge_from_expected": 1.65}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "probability": 64.5, "expected": 3.71, "line": 2.5, "confidence": 0.501, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.5, "edge_from_expected": 1.21}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 39.5, "draw": 32.7, "away": 27.8}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.0, "over_2_5": 36.6, "under_2_5": 63.4, "btts": 42.5, "no_btts": 57.5, "expected_corners": 8.15, "corners_line": 6.5, "corners_pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "corners_probability": 64.9, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.9, "edge_from_expected": 1.65}, "corners_over_8_5": 46.9, "expected_cards": 3.71, "cards_line": 2.5, "cards_pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "cards_probability": 64.5, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.5, "edge_from_expected": 1.21}, "cards_over_3_5": 52.5, "data_depth": 4}, "confidence": 0.506, "reason_score": 50.74, "importance_weight": 1.25, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Municipal vs CS Cartagines", "1X2 probabilities: 1=39.5%, X=32.7%, 2=27.8%", "Double chance priority: 1X 72.2% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 77.0%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.15", "Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.71", "Importance weight: 1.25", "Coverage: partial"]}