Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks FC

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks FC
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=32.2%, X=23.9%, 2=43.9%
• Double chance priority: 12 76.1% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 82.4%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.2
• Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.59
• Importance weight: 1.0
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "6c021996-1657-54eb-9fc3-25156dedfa48", "title": "Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks FC", "home_team": "Northcote City", "away_team": "Eltham Redbacks FC", "competition": "Victoria NPL 2", "date": "2026-07-31", "time": "10:30", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "12", "pick_probability": 76.1, "double_chance": "12", "suggestions": ["12 76.1%", "12 76.1%", "Over 0.5 goals 82.4%", "BTTS No 53.5%", "Over 6.5 corners 65.3%", "Over 2.5 cards 63.1%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "12", "probability": 76.1, "confidence": 0.643}, "double_chance": {"pick": "12", "probability": 76.1, "confidence": 0.645}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 58.5, "confidence": 0.549}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 82.4, "under": 17.6, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 82.4}, "1.5": {"over": 64.4, "under": 35.6, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 64.4}, "2.5": {"over": 41.5, "under": 58.5, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 58.5}, "3.5": {"over": 28.4, "under": 71.6, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 71.6}, "4.5": {"over": 10.4, "under": 89.6, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 89.6}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 82.4, "edge_from_expected": 1.8}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 82.4, "edge_from_expected": 1.8}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 53.5, "confidence": 0.504}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "probability": 65.3, "expected": 8.2, "line": 6.5, "confidence": 0.617, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 65.3, "edge_from_expected": 1.7}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "probability": 63.1, "expected": 3.59, "line": 2.5, "confidence": 0.595, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 63.1, "edge_from_expected": 1.09}}}, "confidence_label": "normal", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 32.2, "draw": 23.9, "away": 43.9}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.3, "over_2_5": 41.5, "under_2_5": 58.5, "btts": 46.5, "no_btts": 53.5, "expected_corners": 8.2, "corners_line": 6.5, "corners_pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "corners_probability": 65.3, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 65.3, "edge_from_expected": 1.7}, "corners_over_8_5": 47.3, "expected_cards": 3.59, "cards_line": 2.5, "cards_pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "cards_probability": 63.1, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 63.1, "edge_from_expected": 1.09}, "cards_over_3_5": 51.1, "data_depth": 10}, "confidence": 0.643, "reason_score": 63.19, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks FC", "1X2 probabilities: 1=32.2%, X=23.9%, 2=43.9%", "Double chance priority: 12 76.1% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 82.4%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 8.2", "Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.59", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}