Portuguesa U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: Portuguesa U20 vs Ponte Preta U20
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=41.5%, X=25.5%, 2=33.0%
• Double chance priority: 12 74.5% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 7.92
• Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.87
• Importance weight: 1.0
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "33b591f4-1f6d-5062-a6db-d84c05fbefe3", "title": "Portuguesa U20 vs Ponte Preta U20", "home_team": "Portuguesa U20", "away_team": "Ponte Preta U20", "competition": "Paulista - U20", "date": "2026-07-31", "time": "18:00", "temporal_status": "today", "days_from_today": 0, "pick": "12", "pick_probability": 74.5, "double_chance": "12", "suggestions": ["12 74.5%", "12 74.5%", "Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "BTTS No 53.1%", "Over 6.5 corners 62.8%", "Over 2.5 cards 66.4%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.5, "confidence": 0.518}, "double_chance": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.5, "confidence": 0.521}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 56.3, "confidence": 0.419}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 84.2, "under": 15.8, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 84.2}, "1.5": {"over": 66.2, "under": 33.8, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 66.2}, "2.5": {"over": 43.7, "under": 56.3, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 56.3}, "3.5": {"over": 30.2, "under": 69.8, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 69.8}, "4.5": {"over": 12.2, "under": 87.8, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 87.8}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 53.1, "confidence": 0.396}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "probability": 62.8, "expected": 7.92, "line": 6.5, "confidence": 0.484, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 62.8, "edge_from_expected": 1.42}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "probability": 66.4, "expected": 3.87, "line": 2.5, "confidence": 0.52, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 66.4, "edge_from_expected": 1.37}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 41.5, "draw": 25.5, "away": 33.0}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.4, "over_2_5": 43.7, "under_2_5": 56.3, "btts": 46.9, "no_btts": 53.1, "expected_corners": 7.92, "corners_line": 6.5, "corners_pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "corners_probability": 62.8, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 6.5 corners", "line": 6.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 62.8, "edge_from_expected": 1.42}, "corners_over_8_5": 44.8, "expected_cards": 3.87, "cards_line": 2.5, "cards_pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "cards_probability": 66.4, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 66.4, "edge_from_expected": 1.37}, "cards_over_3_5": 54.4, "data_depth": 4}, "confidence": 0.518, "reason_score": 52.62, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: Portuguesa U20 vs Ponte Preta U20", "1X2 probabilities: 1=41.5%, X=25.5%, 2=33.0%", "Double chance priority: 12 74.5% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 6.5 corners expected 7.92", "Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.87", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}