FC Zwolle vs Ajax

Model notes

• Team DNA comparison: FC Zwolle vs Ajax
• 1X2 probabilities: 1=42.3%, X=25.6%, 2=32.1%
• Double chance priority: 12 74.4% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)
• Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%
• Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.
• Corners: Over 8.5 corners expected 10.17
• Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.67
• Importance weight: 1.0
• Coverage: partial

Raw profile

{"mode": "subet_prediction_v040", "match_key": "57a74150-e922-5438-96cd-7ba4b5139837", "title": "FC Zwolle vs Ajax", "home_team": "FC Zwolle", "away_team": "Ajax", "competition": "Dutch Eredivisie", "date": "2026-08-09", "time": "12:30", "temporal_status": "upcoming", "days_from_today": 9, "pick": "12", "pick_probability": 74.4, "double_chance": "12", "suggestions": ["12 74.4%", "12 74.4%", "Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "BTTS No 54.4%", "Over 8.5 corners 65.0%", "Over 2.5 cards 64.0%"], "market_pack": {"1x2": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.4, "confidence": 0.518}, "double_chance": {"pick": "12", "probability": 74.4, "confidence": 0.52}, "over_under_2_5": {"pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 56.2, "confidence": 0.418}, "over_under_lines": {"0.5": {"over": 84.2, "under": 15.8, "pick": "Over 0.5", "probability": 84.2}, "1.5": {"over": 66.2, "under": 33.8, "pick": "Over 1.5", "probability": 66.2}, "2.5": {"over": 43.8, "under": 56.2, "pick": "Under 2.5", "probability": 56.2}, "3.5": {"over": 30.2, "under": 69.8, "pick": "Under 3.5", "probability": 69.8}, "4.5": {"over": 12.2, "under": 87.8, "pick": "Under 4.5", "probability": 87.8}, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}}, "conservative_total": {"pick": "Over 0.5 goals", "line": 0.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 84.2, "edge_from_expected": 1.9}, "btts": {"pick": "BTTS No", "probability": 54.4, "confidence": 0.4}, "corners": {"pick": "Over 8.5 corners", "probability": 65.0, "expected": 10.17, "line": 8.5, "confidence": 0.506, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 8.5 corners", "line": 8.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 65.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.67}}, "cards": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "probability": 64.0, "expected": 3.67, "line": 2.5, "confidence": 0.496, "conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.17}}}, "confidence_label": "lean", "model_note": "team_dna_v050", "probabilities": {"home": 42.3, "draw": 25.6, "away": 32.1}, "markets": {"expected_goals": 2.4, "over_2_5": 43.8, "under_2_5": 56.2, "btts": 45.6, "no_btts": 54.4, "expected_corners": 10.17, "corners_line": 8.5, "corners_pick": "Over 8.5 corners", "corners_probability": 65.0, "corners_conservative": {"pick": "Over 8.5 corners", "line": 8.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 65.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.67}, "corners_over_8_5": 65.0, "expected_cards": 3.67, "cards_line": 2.5, "cards_pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "cards_probability": 64.0, "cards_conservative": {"pick": "Over 2.5 cards", "line": 2.5, "side": "OVER", "probability": 64.0, "edge_from_expected": 1.17}, "cards_over_3_5": 52.0, "data_depth": 7}, "confidence": 0.518, "reason_score": 47.56, "importance_weight": 1.0, "coverage_status": "partial", "conservative": true, "explain": ["Team DNA comparison: FC Zwolle vs Ajax", "1X2 probabilities: 1=42.3%, X=25.6%, 2=32.1%", "Double chance priority: 12 74.4% (favourite+draw preferred over 12 when close)", "Conservative totals: Over 0.5 goals 84.2%", "Corners/cards are moved away from borderline lines.", "Corners: Over 8.5 corners expected 10.17", "Cards: Over 2.5 cards expected 3.67", "Importance weight: 1.0", "Coverage: partial"]}